The hot hand fallacy in monkeys

We often make stupid choices when gambling, says Tom Stafford, but if you look at how monkeys act in the same situation, maybe there’s good reason. When we gamble, something odd and seemingly irrational happens. It’s called the ‘hot hand’ fallacy – a belief that your luck comes in streaks – and it can lose you a lot of money. Win on roulette and your chances of winning again aren’t more or less – they stay exactly the same. But something in human psychology resists this fact, and people often place money on the premise that streaks of luck will … Continue reading The hot hand fallacy in monkeys

Does a run of wins make winning more likely ?

A self-fulfilling fallacy? Lady Luck is fickle, but many of us believe we can read her mood. A new study of one year’s worth of bets made via an online betting site shows that gamblers’ attempts to predict when their luck will turn has some unexpected consequences. A common error in judging probabilities is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy. This is the belief that independent chance events have an obligation to ‘even themselves out’ over the short term, so that a run of wins makes a loss more likely, and vice versa. An opposite error is the belief that a … Continue reading Does a run of wins make winning more likely ?