Process vs. Results

Pete Carroll’s decision to pass rather than hand the ball off to Marshawn Lynch is commonly seen as one of the worst football play calls in history. In Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts, Annie Duke says not so fast. It’s easy for us to second guess Pete Carroll after we know the result of the play— but it’s much less obvious when we analyze the facts of the situation before knowing the outcome. In fact, there’s a strong argument to be made that passing the ball was the optimal decision based on everything that Carroll knew at the time the play was called. This is an example of process vs. results thinking. ….[READ]