Do psychologists know how to use probability?

Irrational? Decisions and decision making in context

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness: Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point. His argument seems to be that risks seem different if you view them from a lifetime perspective, where you might make choices about the same risk again and again, rather than consider as one-offs. ….[READ]

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